Study Shows Many Families Leaving Hudson Valley Costing the Region $1.3 Billion in Income Each Year

Real Estate In-Depth | December 2018

POUGHKEEPSIE—The Hudson Valley saw an overall loss of more than 28,000 households during the period 2011-2016, according to a report released by the Marist Bureau of Economic Research on Dec. 12.

The study, “Migration Report of the Hudson Valley 2011-2016,” utilized IRS county-to-county migration data.

The loss of households is a serious issue, the bureau stated in its report. “This migratory outflow resulted in an average annual net loss of $1.3 billion in adjusted gross income,” said Christy Huebner Caridi, director of the bureau and assistant professor of economics at Marist. “That kind of loss impacts everything from how infrastructure is maintained to what businesses might come into the region.”

During the same five-year period, 45,528 households were lost to interstate migration while intra-state migration resulted in a net gain of 18,503 households. Foreign migration was negligible at 1,191 households lost. During 2015-2016 alone, total migratory activity resulted in a net loss of 6,689 households.

Consistent with trend, the southern U.S. was the most important destination for households leaving the Hudson Valley (accounting for more than one-half of all interstate inflows and outflows). Factors that contribute to this trend include retirement, lower cost of living and reduced state and local regulations, Caridi noted.

The report also showed how employment varied by county within the Hudson Valley. For example, while New York City remains an important source of employment at 23.9% of all jobs held by Hudson Valley, Westchester residents are the most dependent on New York City employment at more than 35% of all jobs held and 65% of all commutation activity. Rockland is the second most dependent on New York City at more than 22% and 38%, respectively.

“There is a notable relationship between living and working within the Hudson Valley,” said Caridi. Overall, 59.4% of all primary jobs held by Hudson Valley residents are located within the Hudson Valley; over 44% of those jobs are located within the residents’ home county and 15% are located in other counties within the region.

The region continues to witness significant migratory activity among Rockland, Orange and Sullivan counties. The overall trend is movement away from the lower Hudson Valley in favor of the upper Hudson Valley.

The report confirmed market trends of Westchester gaining households from New York City and seeing households relocate to other areas of the region or state.

The report stated the most significant intrastate activity occurred between Westchester and the five counties of New York City, accounting for 75.3% of all intrastate inflows and 65.1% of all intrastate outflows.

Migratory activity with New York City resulted in a net inflow (12,340 households), with the vast majority of these households migrating from Bronx County.

The second most important intrastate activity was intraregional at 15.5% of all intrastate inflows and 24.0% of all intrastate outflows.

Intra-regional migration resulted in a net loss of 2,649 households. Westchester lost households to every county in the region; the most significant outflows were to Putnam and Dutchess counties at 1,169 and 957 households lost, respectively.

Other key findings during 2011-2016 included:

• One in 17.9 households moved out of the Hudson Valley.

• Total migratory activity resulted in an average annual net loss of $3.7 billion in adjusted gross income (AGI).

• The region lost 45,952 households to interstate migration; intrastate migration resulted in a net gain of 18,503 households.

• Consistent with trend, Westchester County experienced the highest level of intrastate migration.

• In Dutchess, Putnam, Sullivan, and Ulster counties, intrastate migratory outflows exceeded interstate migratory outflows. Intrastate inflows exceeded interstate inflows for all counties in the Hudson Valley.

• Consistent with trend, the largest net inflow in the region (20,599 households) came from New York City (NYC), with most of these households migrating from Bronx County.

• In both Rockland and Westchester counties, the main source of intrastate migratory inflows was New York City.

• Putnam County was most likely to experience migratory activity with a contiguous county at more than one-half of all migratory inflows and outflows.

• Breaking with the trend of previous years, intraregional migratory inflows were more important than all other types of migratory inflows in Dutchess, Sullivan, and Ulster counties.

• Consistent with trend, the Northeast region was the most important source of inflows into the Hudson Valley, while the Southern Region was the most important destination for households leaving the Hudson Valley.

Editor’s Note: To access the full 60-page report, go to https://www.marist.edu/documents/20182/224990/Migration.Report.2011.2016.pdf/132600c4-a406-40f9-9ae5-89962f990d3b