U.S. Pending Home Sales Reverse Course in June

Real Estate In-Depth | August 3, 2017

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. Photo Credit NAR

WASHINGTON— After declining for three straight months, pending home sales reversed course in June as all major regions, with the exception for the Midwest, saw an increase in contract activity, according to a recently released report by the National Association of Realtors.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, climbed 1.5% to 110.2 in June from an upwardly revised 108.6 in May. At 0.5%, the June index increased annually for the first time since March.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the bounce back in pending sales in most of the country in June is a welcoming sign. “The first half of 2017 ended with a nearly identical number of contract signings as one year ago, even as the economy added 2.2 million net new jobs,” he said. “Market conditions in many areas continue to be fast paced, with few properties to choose from, which is forcing buyers to act almost immediately on an available home that fits their criteria.”

Added Yun, “Low supply is an ongoing issue holding back activity. Housing inventory declined last month and is a staggering 7.1% lower than a year ago.”

Yun does note that there could potentially be a sliver of increased hope in the months ahead for prospective first-time buyers, who continue to struggle reaching the market. Sales to investors last month were the lowest of the year (13%), which helped push all cash transactions to 18%—the smallest share since June 2009 (13%).

“It appears the ongoing run-up in price growth in many areas and less homes for sale at bargain prices are forcing some investors to step away from the market,” said Yun. “Fewer investors paying in cash is good news as it could mean a little less competition for the homes first-time buyers can afford. However, the home search will still likely be a strenuous undertaking in coming months because supply shortages in most areas are most severe at the lower end of the market.”

Heading into the second half of the year, Yun expects existing-home sales to finish around 5.56 million, which is an increase of 2.6% from 2016 (5.45 million). The national median existing-home price this year is expected to increase around 5%. In 2016, existing sales increased 3.8% and prices rose 5.1%.

The PHSI in the Northeast inched forward 0.7% to 98.0 in June, and was 2.9% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index decreased 0.5% to 104.0 in June, and was 3.4% lower than June 2016.

Pending home sales in the South rose 2.1% to an index of 126.0 in June and was 2.6% above last June. The index in the West grew 2.9% in June to 101.5, but was 1.1% below a year ago.